Riley Exploration Permian Stock Performance

REPX Stock  USD 27.51  1.49  5.14%   
Riley Exploration has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.62, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Riley Exploration's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Riley Exploration is expected to be smaller as well. Riley Exploration Permian right now holds a risk of 2.32%. Please check Riley Exploration Permian value at risk, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and price action indicator , to decide if Riley Exploration Permian will be following its historical price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Mild

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Riley Exploration Permian are ranked lower than 5 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly uncertain basic indicators, Riley Exploration may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in March 2026. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(5.14)
Five Day Return
(3.10)
Year To Date Return
3.42
Ten Year Return
53.09
All Time Return
(95.42)
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0552
Payout Ratio
0.4073
Last Split Factor
1:12
Forward Dividend Rate
1.6
Dividend Date
2026-02-05
1
Disposition of 955 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.5606 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/03/2025
2
Disposition of 43000 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.1174 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/05/2025
3
Why Riley Permian is set to spend 100M buying its own stock - Stock Titan
12/16/2025
4
Disposition of 400 shares by Philip Riley of Riley Exploration subject to Rule 16b-3
12/18/2025
5
Riley Permian Declares Quarterly Dividend
01/09/2026
6
Analysts Top Energy Picks Riley Exploration Permian , Delek US Holdings - The Globe and Mail
01/13/2026
7
Disposition of 22285 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.6642 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/14/2026
8
Disposition of 129 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.0655 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/15/2026
9
Disposition of 50100 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.1082 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/16/2026
10
Disposition of 16548 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.711 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/20/2026
11
Disposition of 122795 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.7393 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/21/2026
12
Disposition of 22771 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.5609 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/22/2026
13
Disposition of 13128 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.8009 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/23/2026
14
Disposition of 1595 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.55 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/26/2026
15
Disposition of 75220 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.5689 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/27/2026
16
Disposition of 57012 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 27.7336 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/28/2026
17
Disposition of 90000 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.3091 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/29/2026
18
Disposition of 3388 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.1046 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/30/2026
19
Disposition of 8806 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.0654 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/02/2026
20
Disposition of 73528 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.1772 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/03/2026
21
Disposition of 148900 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.5625 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/04/2026
 
Riley Exploration dividend paid on 5th of February 2026
02/05/2026
22
Disposition of 122647 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.8835 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/09/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow15.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-147.8 M

Riley Exploration Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,554  in Riley Exploration Permian on November 13, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  197.00  from holding Riley Exploration Permian or generate 7.71% return on investment over 90 days. Riley Exploration Permian is currently generating 0.1504% in daily expected returns and assumes 2.3247% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 20% of stocks are less volatile than Riley, and 97% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Riley Exploration is expected to generate 2.99 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.99 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.06 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of risk.

Riley Exploration Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Riley Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 27.51 90 days 27.51 
about 18.73
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Riley Exploration to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 18.73 (This Riley Exploration Permian probability density function shows the probability of Riley Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Riley Exploration has a beta of 0.62 indicating as returns on the market go up, Riley Exploration average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Riley Exploration Permian will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Riley Exploration Permian has an alpha of 0.1093, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Riley Exploration Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Riley Exploration

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Riley Exploration Permian. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.0727.3929.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.7631.9934.31
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
41.8646.0051.06
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.780.991.19
Details

Riley Exploration Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Riley Exploration is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Riley Exploration's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Riley Exploration Permian, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Riley Exploration within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.62
σ
Overall volatility
1.16
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Riley Exploration Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Riley Exploration for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Riley Exploration Permian can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Riley Exploration Permian currently holds 277.17 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.24, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Riley Exploration Permian has a current ratio of 0.48, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Riley Exploration's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Riley Exploration has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 60.0% of Riley Exploration shares are owned by institutional investors
On 5th of February 2026 Riley Exploration paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 122647 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.8835 subject to Rule 16b-3

Riley Exploration Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Riley Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Riley Exploration's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Riley Exploration's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding20.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments13.1 M

Riley Exploration Fundamentals Growth

Riley Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Riley Exploration, and Riley Exploration fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Riley Stock performance.

About Riley Exploration Performance

Evaluating Riley Exploration's performance through its fundamental ratios, provides valuable insights into its operational efficiency and profitability. For instance, if Riley Exploration has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Riley Exploration has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 13.66  12.98 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.08  0.08 
Return On Capital Employed 0.16  0.17 
Return On Assets 0.08  0.08 
Return On Equity 0.17  0.16 

Things to note about Riley Exploration Permian performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Riley Exploration for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Riley Exploration Permian help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Riley Exploration Permian currently holds 277.17 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.24, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Riley Exploration Permian has a current ratio of 0.48, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Riley Exploration's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Riley Exploration has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 60.0% of Riley Exploration shares are owned by institutional investors
On 5th of February 2026 Riley Exploration paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 122647 shares by Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings Llc of Riley Exploration at 28.8835 subject to Rule 16b-3
Evaluating Riley Exploration's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Riley Exploration's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Riley Exploration's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Riley Exploration's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Riley Exploration's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Riley Exploration's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Riley Exploration's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Riley Exploration's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Riley Exploration's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Riley Exploration's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Riley Exploration's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Tools for Riley Stock Analysis

When running Riley Exploration's price analysis, check to measure Riley Exploration's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Riley Exploration is operating at the current time. Most of Riley Exploration's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Riley Exploration's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Riley Exploration's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Riley Exploration to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.